There was sort of a lot of movement between this week and last, but that’s to be expected with so few games in the books.

The Cardinals, Bengals and Broncos are all no longer in the top ten, so that’s nice.

Chargers Offensive Success Rate:

Chargers Defensive Stop Rate:

Starting with the offense, the thing that jumps out at me is the drastically different levels of success passing on early downs versus passing on third down and the inverse seen with the run.  It appears based on the numbers (I haven’t re-watched the game yet) the issue was that the Chargers insisted on the run/run/pass formula which consisted of short run, short run, long pass attempt.  Obviously that didn’t work.  However, when they changed things up and threw early, they were able to actually pick up yards.  Also, they converted both third and short rush attempts (one a 2-yard pick up by Sproles and the other a nice 11 yard gainer by Tolbert).

I was also a little surprised to see that we had a success rate of at least 50% passing the ball in the final three quarters.  Less surprising is that we did not have even one successful running play in the first half.  The 18% success rate overall in the first quarter was just incredibly bad, but quarters two through three were at least respectable.

On the defensive side of the ball, what can you really say?  They were outstanding.  Outside of second down passes and second quarter runs, they stopped better than 50% of all other plays, perhaps most impressively the dominant 80% stop rate on third down.  When you have a 60% stop rate in three of four quarters and a 50% or better stop rate in all four, you’re probably going to win.  I have nothing negative to say about the way the defense played except that Clinton Hart blew a coverage that led to a long pass TD.  They really stepped up their play overall and they won this game.

Definitely better than against Denver where the Stop Rate was under 40% against both the run and the pass.

It’s a little early (we’re only two weeks removed from every team having an RPI of .500), but I thought it might be of interest to some of you and I already had it typed up, so here you go:

Pythagenport is (pf^x)/(pf^x + pf^x) where x is ((pf+pf)/g)^.285.  RPI is 25% Pythagenport Winning Percentage, 50% Opponents’ Pythagenport Winning Percentage and 25% Opponents’ Opponents’ Pythagenport Winning Percentage.  The rest of the stats should already be familiar.

Overall: 50.9% (29/57)

Run: 37.5% (12/32)

Pass: 68.0% (17/25)

1st Down: 29.2% (7/24)

2nd Down: 65.0% (13/20)

3rd Down: 69.2% (9/13)

1stRun: 25.0% (5/20)

1stPass: 50.0% (2/4)

2ndRun: 44.4% (4/9)

2ndPass: 81.8% (9/11)

3rdRun: 100.0% (3/3)

3rdPass: 60.0% (6/10)

1st Quarter: 36.8% (7/19)

2nd Quarter: 66.7% (10/15)

3rd Quarter: 61.5% (8/13)

4th Quarter: 40.0% (4/10)

1stRun: 25.0% (2/8)

1stPass: 45.5% (5/11)

2ndRun: 54.5% (6/11)

2ndPass: 100.0% (4/4)

3rdRun: 42.9% (3/7)

3rdPass: 83.3% (5/6)

4thRun: 16.7% (1/6)

4thPass: 75.0% (3/4)

Obviously, the passing success is fantastic and the rushing success is actually rather decent in the middle quarters in between “establishing the run” in the first quarter and “killing the clock” in the fourth.  Every time we had a third down of over 1 yard, we threw for it which I thought was interesting.  Going 3 for 3 on third and one all via the run was nice.  Overall, there’s not much to be too unhappy about especially given our fondness for running between the tackles and the fact that we’re still missing arguably (and inarguably one of) the best center in football.

If the mood strikes me, I might post these numbers for the defense as well.  If anyone is interested in seeing them on a weekly basis, I might do that, too.  If there’s a split you think would be interesting to look at, let me know and I’ll consider it.

He’s actually doing better, which is a little surprising and even a little encouraging.  Through 312 PA in 2007, he was hitting only .230/.288/.401.  23 points of OBP and 18 points of SLG isn’t half bad.  Should he finish the year with those increases holding, he’d have an OBP/SLG of .352/.475 at the end.  I don’t necessarily expect that, but honestly I don’t know what to expect, so that doesn’t mean much.

The way I intend to put together my preferred team is by first looking at who has had the best year thus far then looking at each player individually to see if their past accomplishments or future projections in the case of younger players match up with their current performance.

As for how we’ll measure performance, I’ll be using Runs Above Replacement as derived from wOBA and Baseball Reference’s multi-year park factors. My roster will be composed of starters at the 8 positions, back ups at each of those positions and the four best players not making it into one of those 16 spots.

Without further ado, my initial list of starters:

Pos Name, Team, RAR

C Brian McCann, ATL, 29.8

1B Lance Berkman, HOU, 41.8

2B Dan Uggla, FLO, 34.5

3B Chipper Jones, ATL, 48.1

SS Hanley Ramirez, FLO, 28.6

OF Nate McLouth, PIT, 32.2

OF Jason Bay, PIT, 28.8

OF Brian Giles, SDN, 26.2

It’s hard to argue with most of these guys making an All-Star team. All but two of them have appeared in at least one. Hanley Ramirez, one of the two without an appearance, was Rookie of the Year in 2006. So, that leaves Nate McLouth. McLouth is 26 years old and in the middle of what will likely be his first full season as a starter. I think there’s certainly an argument for leaving him at the least out of the starting lineup. The next guy in line for his spot is Aaron Rowand of San Francisco (25.1 RAR). Rowand is a former All-Star in his own right and is difficult to argue against including.

The initial list of back-ups then is:

C Russell Martin, LAN, 22.2

1B Albert Pujols, SLN, 35.5

2B Chase Utley, PHI, 34.4

3B Aramis Ramirez, CHN, 26.9

SS Jose Reyes, NYN, 21.2

OF Aaron Rowand, SFN, 25.1

OF Ryan Ludwick, SLN, 24.1

OF Pat Burrell, PHI, 23.6

All except Ludwick and Burrell are former All-Stars. Ludwick in five previous seasons has played in just over 220 games and is either a late bloomer or in the middle of a fluky 50-some game stretch. There’s an argument to be made not to include him. Burrell on the other hand is a veteran player who has had a very good career and just hasn’t received All-Star berth despite being deserving previously. I don’t think you can make a very good argument for keeping him home this year. Next in line for Ludwick’s spot is former All-Star Adam Dunn of the Reds (20.0 RAR).

The four floating best player available spots go to:

3B David Wright, NYN, 26.9

1B Adrian Gonzalez, SDN, 22.5

SS Rafael Furcal, LAN, 20.2

OF Adam Dunn, CIN, 20.0

Only Gonzalez has yet to be included on an All-Star team and I can’t think of a single argument to keep him out of this one. Now, if we go ahead and drop McLouth and Ludwick, that moves Rowand to a starter’s spot and Dunn to a back up role from best player available while leaving an empty spot at back up outfielder and fourth best player available.

Statistically this year the next in line for back up outfielder is Xavier Nady, but he suffers from the same problems as McLouth and Ludwick, so if we’re to include him, why not include them instead? Going further down the list we find Matt Holliday of Colorado (18.5 RAR). And looking to fill the spot vacated by Dunn we get Christian Guzman of Washington (19.3 RAR). Both are former All Stars, so they fit. As a bonus both play for teams until now not represented on our roster.

The lone remaining concern is that there is no representative of either Arizona or Milwaukee, but that can be taken care of on the pitching side of the equation, I suppose.

UPDATE: If you add last year’s numbers to this year’s, you get the following result:

C Russell Martin

1B Albert Pujols

2B Chase Utley

3B Chipper Jones

SS Hanley Ramirez

OF Matt Holliday

OF Aaron Rowand

OF Ryan Braun

C Brian McCann

1B Lance Berkman

2B Dan Uggla

3B David Wright

SS Jimmy Rollins

OF Adam Dunn

OF Carlos Beltran

OF Pat Burrell

3B Aramis Ramirez

1B Prince Fielder

1B Derrek Lee

1B Mark Teixeira

I am way too tired to comment on that, but I figured I’d at least post it.  What do you say?  Are those results more to your liking?

(A lot of people disagree with choosing the team based on half a season’s worth of results and I respect that, but that’s how I’m going to be breaking down this year’s team today.)

Obviously, the starters will include one each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman and shortstop as well as three “outfielders.” This years numbers suggest those spots ought to be occupied by the followng:

C Brian McCann, ATL

1B Lance Berkman, HOU

2B Dan Uggla, FLO

3B Chipper Jones, ATL

SS Hanley Ramirez, FLO

OF1 Nate McLouth, PIT

OF2 Jason Bay, PIT

OF3 Ryan Ludwick, SLN

Only McLouth and Ludwick appear out of place, but they’re both having fantastic years thus far.

When looking at the bench positions, I decided to use last year’s bench composition as a guideline. That manes one catcher, three first basemen, two second basemen, one third baseman, one shortstop and four “outfielders.” Using RAR, that gives us:

C Geovany Soto, CHN

1B1 Albert Pujols, SLN

1B2 Derrek Lee, CHN

1B3 Adrian Gonzalez, SDN

2B1 Chase Utley, PHI

2B2 Mark DeRosa, CHN

3B Aramis Ramirez, CHN

SS Rafael Furcal, LAN

OF1 Aaron Rowand, SFN

OF2 Pat Burrell, PHI

OF3 Matt Holliday, COL

OF4 Brian Giles, SDN

There are no real surprises save Mark DeRosa and Geovany Soto if you don’t follow minor league prospects. Now, one might argue that last year’s roster doesn’t apply to this year’s and that’s a fair point, so I also looked at it from the point of view of having eight back ups (one for each starter) and four floating best player not selected. That gives us a bench like this:

C1 Geovany Soto, CHN

C2 Russell Martin, LAN

1B1 Albert Pujols, SLN

1B2 Derrek Lee, CHN

2B Chase Utley, PHI

3B1 Aramis Ramirez, CHN

3B2 David Wright, NYN

SS Rafael Furcal, LAN

OF1 Aaron Rowand, SFN

OF2 Pat Burrell, PHI

OF3 Matt Holliday, COL

OF4 Brian Giles, SDN

As you can see David Wright and Russell Martin squeeze out Adrian Gonzalez and Mark DeRosa, which I think is damn near impossible to argue with. And hey, we still have a deserving Padre on the list, so that’s cool.

Jake Peavy is getting better. We’ll re-evaluate in four or five days.

Chris Young will be out at least a month.

Clay Hensley’s velocity is coming back, his soreness is gone and we’ll likely see him, Carlos Guevara and Justin Hampson up with the big league club in the next few weeks.

Strikeouts are part of the game, the problem is when you’re striking out on pitchers’ pitches. The key thing is swinging at quality strikes.

Chase Headley will be up in June, possibly early June, probably before interleague play. A big part of holding off on calling him up has been an attempt to let Chase build his confidence at Triple A after a slow start in April.

Sandy Alderson conducted his weekly interview this afternoon and you can listen to it here. The highlights:

Tim Sullivan’s column was fair.  We are always balancing the now versus the future.  Alderson declined to speak about Headley specifically.  He asks, “If we have a guy who is one day away from qualifying for free agency one year early, would you expect the team to take that into account?”  As you move from that, he notes, it gets less black and white.  He also makes the point that regardless of what Player A might get paid, the Padres will spend the same amount on payroll calling it a zero sum game.  Money not spent on one particular player is spent on another, not invested outside the organization.  Payroll is set ahead of time, allocation amongst players is decided annually.

“Let’s back off the notion that Tim Sullivan or Nick Canepa or somebody else knows that Chase Headley is quote ready.”  Chase could flame out.  We need to be careful about assuming he’s going to be the next Ryan Braun or whoever.  Scott Hairston, Jody Gerut, etc. are involved in this equation, also.  We need to find out which if any of those guys are going to be in their plans going forward.

The team is careful with their money, but aren’t afraid to take a shot at somebody (Jim Edmonds) even if that doesn’t work out.  They are, however, unwilling to put themselves in a situation where a mistake could handicap them for seasons to come (Andruw Jones).

The comments about the right environment are with regard to an environment where Headley won’t be likely to alter his approach at the plate.  It’s not about chemistry in the clubhouse or anything of that nature.  They don’t want to have to send Headley down again.

We strike out too often.  We can tolerate 100 strikeouts if a guy has 100 walks.  Our K/BB ratio is horrendous.  With regard to a two strike approach, putting the ball into play is really no better than striking out at the Major League level.  Fielders are too good to not put the ball into play with authority and expect not to make an out.  The Padres stress walks less as an outcome than as evidence of a selective approach.

A lot of the team’s approach moving forward will depend upon health.

]]> http://intentionalblogonballs.wordpress.com/2008/05/28/kt-and-alderson-on-the-radio/feed/ 1 Richard B. Wade