Pythagenport Relative Power Index Week 4

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

There was sort of a lot of movement between this week and last, but that’s to be expected with so few games in the books.

Rk Team G PF PA PCT Opp OppOpp RPI PF/G PA/G LW
1 Philadelphia Eagles 4 110 74 .765 .510 .577 .591 27.5 18.5 3
2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 101 78 .682 .578 .513 .588 25.3 19.5 6
3 Washington Redskins 4 86 81 .543 .672 .461 .587 21.5 20.3 2
4 Chicago Bears 4 94 80 .616 .592 .534 .583 23.5 20.0 13
5 Dallas Cowboys 4 120 89 .716 .516 .562 .577 30.0 22.3 1
6 New Orleans Saints 4 111 100 .580 .576 .531 .566 27.8 25.0 5
7 Carolina Panthers 4 80 70 .593 .559 .524 .559 20.0 17.5 16
8 San Diego Chargers 4 138 112 .663 .502 .527 .548 34.5 28.0 15
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 4 77 58 .684 .467 .534 .538 19.3 14.5 17
10 Tennessee Titans 4 102 46 .903 .298 .627 .531 25.5 11.5 11
11 New York Giants 3 83 43 .871 .254 .696 .519 27.7 14.3 12
12 Green Bay Packers 4 109 101 .559 .478 .555 .517 27.3 25.3 9
13 Baltimore Ravens 3 65 43 .759 .359 .579 .514 21.7 14.3 19
14 Minnesota Vikings 4 71 82 .400 .595 .456 .511 17.8 20.5 21
15 Buffalo Bills 4 109 63 .832 .315 .579 .510 27.3 15.8 10
16 Denver Broncos 4 133 117 .603 .450 .532 .509 33.3 29.3 7
17 Arizona Cardinals 4 106 103 .522 .497 .518 .509 26.5 25.8 4
18 Jacksonville Jaguars 4 79 85 .447 .552 .445 .499 19.8 21.3 14
19 New York Jets 4 115 116 .493 .512 .467 .496 28.8 29.0 30
20 Houston Texans 3 56 99 .148 .678 .439 .486 18.7 33.0 22
21 Cincinnati Bengals 4 52 87 .195 .682 .375 .484 13.0 21.8 8
22 Oakland Raiders 4 78 101 .318 .585 .433 .480 19.5 25.3 24
23 Atlanta Falcons 4 90 83 .559 .407 .534 .477 22.5 20.8 27
24 Indianapolis Colts 3 52 67 .327 .488 .580 .470 17.3 22.3 26
25 Miami Dolphins 3 62 64 .477 .467 .471 .470 20.7 21.3 28
26 Cleveland Browns 4 46 78 .197 .589 .506 .470 11.5 19.5 20
27 St. Louis Rams 4 43 147 .024 .735 .381 .469 10.8 36.8 25
28 Seattle Seahawks 3 77 80 .471 .444 .490 .462 25.7 26.7 23
29 San Francisco 49ers 4 94 97 .476 .421 .512 .458 23.5 24.3 18
30 New England Patriots 3 49 58 .385 .404 .482 .419 16.3 19.3 31
31 Kansas City Chiefs 4 65 97 .241 .466 .461 .409 16.3 24.3 32
32 Detroit Lions 3 59 113 .113 .531 .435 .403 19.7 37.7 29

The Cardinals, Bengals and Broncos are all no longer in the top ten, so that’s nice.

Chargers-Raiders Success & Stop Rates

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

Chargers Offensive Success Rate:

Overall 41.0% 25/61
Pass 48.5% 16/33
Run 32.1% 9/28
1st Down 37.0% 10/27
2nd Down 47.4% 9/19
3rd Down 35.7% 5/14
1stPass 53.8% 7/13
1stRun 21.4% 3/14
2ndPass 62.5% 5/8
2ndRun 36.4% 4/11
3rdPass 27.3% 3/11
3rdRun 66.7% 2/3
1st Quarter 18.2% 2/11
2nd Quarter 42.9% 6/14
3rd Quarter 47.6% 10/21
4th Quarter 46.7% 7/15
1stPass 28.6% 2/7
1stRun 0.0% 0/4
2ndPass 54.5% 6/11
2ndRun 0.0% 0/3
3rdPass 57.1% 4/7
3rdRun 42.9% 6/14
4thPass 50.0% 4/8
4thRun 42.9% 3/7

Chargers Defensive Stop Rate:

Overall 59.1% 39/66
Pass 57.8% 26/45
Run 61.9% 13/21
1st Down 55.6% 15/27
2nd Down 47.8% 11/23
3rd Down 80.0% 12/15
4th Down 100.0% 1/1
1stPass 56.3% 9/16
1stRun 54.5% 6/11
2ndPass 30.8% 4/13
2ndRun 70.0% 7/10
3rdPass 80.0% 12/15
3rdRun N/A N/A
4thPass 100.0% 1/1
4thRun N/A N/A
1st Quarter 61.1% 11/18
2nd Quarter 50.0% 7/14
3rd Quarter 66.7% 4/6
4th Quarter 60.7% 17/28
1stPass 61.5% 8/13
1stRun 60.0% 3/5
2ndPass 57.1% 4/7
2ndRun 42.9% 3/7
3rdPass 60.0% 3/5
3rdRun 100.0% 1/1
4thPass 55.0% 11/20
4thRun 75.0% 6/8

Starting with the offense, the thing that jumps out at me is the drastically different levels of success passing on early downs versus passing on third down and the inverse seen with the run.  It appears based on the numbers (I haven’t re-watched the game yet) the issue was that the Chargers insisted on the run/run/pass formula which consisted of short run, short run, long pass attempt.  Obviously that didn’t work.  However, when they changed things up and threw early, they were able to actually pick up yards.  Also, they converted both third and short rush attempts (one a 2-yard pick up by Sproles and the other a nice 11 yard gainer by Tolbert).

I was also a little surprised to see that we had a success rate of at least 50% passing the ball in the final three quarters.  Less surprising is that we did not have even one successful running play in the first half.  The 18% success rate overall in the first quarter was just incredibly bad, but quarters two through three were at least respectable.

On the defensive side of the ball, what can you really say?  They were outstanding.  Outside of second down passes and second quarter runs, they stopped better than 50% of all other plays, perhaps most impressively the dominant 80% stop rate on third down.  When you have a 60% stop rate in three of four quarters and a 50% or better stop rate in all four, you’re probably going to win.  I have nothing negative to say about the way the defense played except that Clinton Hart blew a coverage that led to a long pass TD.  They really stepped up their play overall and they won this game.

Chargers-Jets Stop Rates Splits (Chargers Defense)

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

Overall 51.5% 34/66
Run 61.5% 8/13
Pass 49.1% 26/53
1st Down 48.3% 14/29
2nd Down 41.7% 10/24
3rd Down 87.5% 7/8
4th Down 33.3% 1/3
1stRun 62.5% 5/8
1stPass 42.9% 9/21
2ndRun 75.0% 3/4
2nd Pass 35.0% 7/20
3rdRun N/A N/A
3rdPass 87.5% 7/8
4thRun 0.0% 0/1
4thPass 50.0% 1/2
1st Quarter 41.7% 5/12
2nd Quarter 69.2% 9/13
3rd Quarter 46.7% 7/15
4th Quarter 50.0% 13/26
1stRun 50.0% 2/4
1stPass 37.5% 3/8
2ndRun 75.0% 3/4
2nd Pass 66.7% 6/9
3rdRun 75.0% 3/4
3rdPass 36.4% 4/11
4thRun 0.0% 0/1
4thPass 52.0% 13/25

Definitely better than against Denver where the Stop Rate was under 40% against both the run and the pass.

Pythagenport Relative Power Index Week 3

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

It’s a little early (we’re only two weeks removed from every team having an RPI of .500), but I thought it might be of interest to some of you and I already had it typed up, so here you go:

Rk Team G PF PA PCT Opp OppOpp RPI PF/G PA/G
1 Dallas Cowboys 3 96 63 .787 .530 .594 .610 32.0 21.0
2 Washington Redskins 3 60 57 .536 .702 .477 .604 20.0 19.0
3 Philadelphia Eagles 3 90 50 .853 .506 .532 .599 30.0 16.7
4 Arizona Cardinals 3 71 47 .764 .542 .542 .598 23.7 15.7
5 New Orleans Saints 3 80 83 .471 .641 .596 .588 26.7 27.7
6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 71 57 .655 .601 .465 .581 23.7 19.0
7 Denver Broncos 3 114 84 .733 .486 .553 .565 38.0 28.0
8 Cincinnati Bengals 3 40 67 .193 .897 .200 .547 13.3 22.3
9 Green Bay Packers 3 88 71 .661 .475 .557 .542 29.3 23.7
10 Buffalo Bills 3 78 49 .794 .405 .563 .542 26.0 16.3
11 Tennessee Titans 3 72 29 .923 .215 .800 .538 24.0 9.7
12 New York Giants 3 83 43 .871 .248 .777 .536 27.7 14.3
13 Chicago Bears 3 70 60 .611 .474 .566 .531 23.3 20.0
14 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 49 58 .385 .681 .376 .531 16.3 19.3
15 San Diego Chargers 3 110 94 .628 .484 .524 .530 36.7 31.3
16 Carolina Panthers 3 56 61 .440 .588 .478 .523 18.7 20.3
17 Pittsburgh Steelers 3 54 38 .718 .333 .709 .523 18.0 12.7
18 San Francisco 49ers 3 77 66 .614 .449 .561 .518 25.7 22.0
19 Baltimore Ravens 2 45 20 .899 .136 .849 .505 22.5 10.0
20 Cleveland Browns 3 26 66 .078 .801 .333 .503 8.7 22.0
21 Minnesota Vikings 3 54 52 .526 .476 .524 .500 18.0 17.3
22 Houston Texans 2 29 69 .067 .820 .274 .495 14.5 34.5
23 Seattle Seahawks 3 77 80 .471 .474 .529 .487 25.7 26.7
24 Oakland Raiders 3 60 73 .359 .535 .460 .472 20.0 24.3
25 St. Louis Rams 3 29 116 .015 .731 .410 .472 9.7 38.7
26 Indianapolis Colts 3 52 67 .327 .507 .543 .471 17.3 22.3
27 Atlanta Falcons 3 81 59 .721 .282 .585 .467 27.0 19.7
28 Miami Dolphins 3 62 64 .477 .476 .439 .467 20.7 21.3
29 Detroit Lions 3 59 113 .113 .665 .402 .461 19.7 37.7
30 New York Jets 3 59 81 .279 .497 .413 .421 19.7 27.0
31 New England Patriots 3 49 58 .385 .278 .487 .357 16.3 19.3
32 Kansas City Chiefs 3 32 78 .077 .488 .365 .355 10.7 26.0

Pythagenport is (pf^x)/(pf^x + pf^x) where x is ((pf+pf)/g)^.285.  RPI is 25% Pythagenport Winning Percentage, 50% Opponents’ Pythagenport Winning Percentage and 25% Opponents’ Opponents’ Pythagenport Winning Percentage.  The rest of the stats should already be familiar.

Chargers-Jets Success Rate Splits (Charger Offense)

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

Overall: 50.9% (29/57)

Run: 37.5% (12/32)

Pass: 68.0% (17/25)

1st Down: 29.2% (7/24)

2nd Down: 65.0% (13/20)

3rd Down: 69.2% (9/13)

1stRun: 25.0% (5/20)

1stPass: 50.0% (2/4)

2ndRun: 44.4% (4/9)

2ndPass: 81.8% (9/11)

3rdRun: 100.0% (3/3)

3rdPass: 60.0% (6/10)

1st Quarter: 36.8% (7/19)

2nd Quarter: 66.7% (10/15)

3rd Quarter: 61.5% (8/13)

4th Quarter: 40.0% (4/10)

1stRun: 25.0% (2/8)

1stPass: 45.5% (5/11)

2ndRun: 54.5% (6/11)

2ndPass: 100.0% (4/4)

3rdRun: 42.9% (3/7)

3rdPass: 83.3% (5/6)

4thRun: 16.7% (1/6)

4thPass: 75.0% (3/4)

Obviously, the passing success is fantastic and the rushing success is actually rather decent in the middle quarters in between “establishing the run” in the first quarter and “killing the clock” in the fourth.  Every time we had a third down of over 1 yard, we threw for it which I thought was interesting.  Going 3 for 3 on third and one all via the run was nice.  Overall, there’s not much to be too unhappy about especially given our fondness for running between the tackles and the fact that we’re still missing arguably (and inarguably one of) the best center in football.

If the mood strikes me, I might post these numbers for the defense as well.  If anyone is interested in seeing them on a weekly basis, I might do that, too.  If there’s a split you think would be interesting to look at, let me know and I’ll consider it.