Chargers-Raiders Success & Stop Rates

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

Chargers Offensive Success Rate:

Overall 41.0% 25/61
Pass 48.5% 16/33
Run 32.1% 9/28
1st Down 37.0% 10/27
2nd Down 47.4% 9/19
3rd Down 35.7% 5/14
1stPass 53.8% 7/13
1stRun 21.4% 3/14
2ndPass 62.5% 5/8
2ndRun 36.4% 4/11
3rdPass 27.3% 3/11
3rdRun 66.7% 2/3
1st Quarter 18.2% 2/11
2nd Quarter 42.9% 6/14
3rd Quarter 47.6% 10/21
4th Quarter 46.7% 7/15
1stPass 28.6% 2/7
1stRun 0.0% 0/4
2ndPass 54.5% 6/11
2ndRun 0.0% 0/3
3rdPass 57.1% 4/7
3rdRun 42.9% 6/14
4thPass 50.0% 4/8
4thRun 42.9% 3/7

Chargers Defensive Stop Rate:

Overall 59.1% 39/66
Pass 57.8% 26/45
Run 61.9% 13/21
1st Down 55.6% 15/27
2nd Down 47.8% 11/23
3rd Down 80.0% 12/15
4th Down 100.0% 1/1
1stPass 56.3% 9/16
1stRun 54.5% 6/11
2ndPass 30.8% 4/13
2ndRun 70.0% 7/10
3rdPass 80.0% 12/15
3rdRun N/A N/A
4thPass 100.0% 1/1
4thRun N/A N/A
1st Quarter 61.1% 11/18
2nd Quarter 50.0% 7/14
3rd Quarter 66.7% 4/6
4th Quarter 60.7% 17/28
1stPass 61.5% 8/13
1stRun 60.0% 3/5
2ndPass 57.1% 4/7
2ndRun 42.9% 3/7
3rdPass 60.0% 3/5
3rdRun 100.0% 1/1
4thPass 55.0% 11/20
4thRun 75.0% 6/8

Starting with the offense, the thing that jumps out at me is the drastically different levels of success passing on early downs versus passing on third down and the inverse seen with the run.  It appears based on the numbers (I haven’t re-watched the game yet) the issue was that the Chargers insisted on the run/run/pass formula which consisted of short run, short run, long pass attempt.  Obviously that didn’t work.  However, when they changed things up and threw early, they were able to actually pick up yards.  Also, they converted both third and short rush attempts (one a 2-yard pick up by Sproles and the other a nice 11 yard gainer by Tolbert).

I was also a little surprised to see that we had a success rate of at least 50% passing the ball in the final three quarters.  Less surprising is that we did not have even one successful running play in the first half.  The 18% success rate overall in the first quarter was just incredibly bad, but quarters two through three were at least respectable.

On the defensive side of the ball, what can you really say?  They were outstanding.  Outside of second down passes and second quarter runs, they stopped better than 50% of all other plays, perhaps most impressively the dominant 80% stop rate on third down.  When you have a 60% stop rate in three of four quarters and a 50% or better stop rate in all four, you’re probably going to win.  I have nothing negative to say about the way the defense played except that Clinton Hart blew a coverage that led to a long pass TD.  They really stepped up their play overall and they won this game.

Chargers-Jets Stop Rates Splits (Chargers Defense)

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

Overall 51.5% 34/66
Run 61.5% 8/13
Pass 49.1% 26/53
1st Down 48.3% 14/29
2nd Down 41.7% 10/24
3rd Down 87.5% 7/8
4th Down 33.3% 1/3
1stRun 62.5% 5/8
1stPass 42.9% 9/21
2ndRun 75.0% 3/4
2nd Pass 35.0% 7/20
3rdRun N/A N/A
3rdPass 87.5% 7/8
4thRun 0.0% 0/1
4thPass 50.0% 1/2
1st Quarter 41.7% 5/12
2nd Quarter 69.2% 9/13
3rd Quarter 46.7% 7/15
4th Quarter 50.0% 13/26
1stRun 50.0% 2/4
1stPass 37.5% 3/8
2ndRun 75.0% 3/4
2nd Pass 66.7% 6/9
3rdRun 75.0% 3/4
3rdPass 36.4% 4/11
4thRun 0.0% 0/1
4thPass 52.0% 13/25

Definitely better than against Denver where the Stop Rate was under 40% against both the run and the pass.