Chargers-Raiders Success & Stop Rates

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

Chargers Offensive Success Rate:

Overall 41.0% 25/61
Pass 48.5% 16/33
Run 32.1% 9/28
1st Down 37.0% 10/27
2nd Down 47.4% 9/19
3rd Down 35.7% 5/14
1stPass 53.8% 7/13
1stRun 21.4% 3/14
2ndPass 62.5% 5/8
2ndRun 36.4% 4/11
3rdPass 27.3% 3/11
3rdRun 66.7% 2/3
1st Quarter 18.2% 2/11
2nd Quarter 42.9% 6/14
3rd Quarter 47.6% 10/21
4th Quarter 46.7% 7/15
1stPass 28.6% 2/7
1stRun 0.0% 0/4
2ndPass 54.5% 6/11
2ndRun 0.0% 0/3
3rdPass 57.1% 4/7
3rdRun 42.9% 6/14
4thPass 50.0% 4/8
4thRun 42.9% 3/7

Chargers Defensive Stop Rate:

Overall 59.1% 39/66
Pass 57.8% 26/45
Run 61.9% 13/21
1st Down 55.6% 15/27
2nd Down 47.8% 11/23
3rd Down 80.0% 12/15
4th Down 100.0% 1/1
1stPass 56.3% 9/16
1stRun 54.5% 6/11
2ndPass 30.8% 4/13
2ndRun 70.0% 7/10
3rdPass 80.0% 12/15
3rdRun N/A N/A
4thPass 100.0% 1/1
4thRun N/A N/A
1st Quarter 61.1% 11/18
2nd Quarter 50.0% 7/14
3rd Quarter 66.7% 4/6
4th Quarter 60.7% 17/28
1stPass 61.5% 8/13
1stRun 60.0% 3/5
2ndPass 57.1% 4/7
2ndRun 42.9% 3/7
3rdPass 60.0% 3/5
3rdRun 100.0% 1/1
4thPass 55.0% 11/20
4thRun 75.0% 6/8

Starting with the offense, the thing that jumps out at me is the drastically different levels of success passing on early downs versus passing on third down and the inverse seen with the run.  It appears based on the numbers (I haven’t re-watched the game yet) the issue was that the Chargers insisted on the run/run/pass formula which consisted of short run, short run, long pass attempt.  Obviously that didn’t work.  However, when they changed things up and threw early, they were able to actually pick up yards.  Also, they converted both third and short rush attempts (one a 2-yard pick up by Sproles and the other a nice 11 yard gainer by Tolbert).

I was also a little surprised to see that we had a success rate of at least 50% passing the ball in the final three quarters.  Less surprising is that we did not have even one successful running play in the first half.  The 18% success rate overall in the first quarter was just incredibly bad, but quarters two through three were at least respectable.

On the defensive side of the ball, what can you really say?  They were outstanding.  Outside of second down passes and second quarter runs, they stopped better than 50% of all other plays, perhaps most impressively the dominant 80% stop rate on third down.  When you have a 60% stop rate in three of four quarters and a 50% or better stop rate in all four, you’re probably going to win.  I have nothing negative to say about the way the defense played except that Clinton Hart blew a coverage that led to a long pass TD.  They really stepped up their play overall and they won this game.

Chargers-Jets Success Rate Splits (Charger Offense)

Cross-posted at Bolts from the Blue.

Overall: 50.9% (29/57)

Run: 37.5% (12/32)

Pass: 68.0% (17/25)

1st Down: 29.2% (7/24)

2nd Down: 65.0% (13/20)

3rd Down: 69.2% (9/13)

1stRun: 25.0% (5/20)

1stPass: 50.0% (2/4)

2ndRun: 44.4% (4/9)

2ndPass: 81.8% (9/11)

3rdRun: 100.0% (3/3)

3rdPass: 60.0% (6/10)

1st Quarter: 36.8% (7/19)

2nd Quarter: 66.7% (10/15)

3rd Quarter: 61.5% (8/13)

4th Quarter: 40.0% (4/10)

1stRun: 25.0% (2/8)

1stPass: 45.5% (5/11)

2ndRun: 54.5% (6/11)

2ndPass: 100.0% (4/4)

3rdRun: 42.9% (3/7)

3rdPass: 83.3% (5/6)

4thRun: 16.7% (1/6)

4thPass: 75.0% (3/4)

Obviously, the passing success is fantastic and the rushing success is actually rather decent in the middle quarters in between “establishing the run” in the first quarter and “killing the clock” in the fourth.  Every time we had a third down of over 1 yard, we threw for it which I thought was interesting.  Going 3 for 3 on third and one all via the run was nice.  Overall, there’s not much to be too unhappy about especially given our fondness for running between the tackles and the fact that we’re still missing arguably (and inarguably one of) the best center in football.

If the mood strikes me, I might post these numbers for the defense as well.  If anyone is interested in seeing them on a weekly basis, I might do that, too.  If there’s a split you think would be interesting to look at, let me know and I’ll consider it.