Replacement Players

The Padres this season have carried at one time or another fifteen different position players. Eight of them have performed below replacement level offensively.

I suppose the first reaction from those inclined to defend the Padres would be to point to the park, but note that I’m basing my assertion on a statistic that is adjusted for both park and position. A more reasonable point of contention might be that the sample for many of these players is quite small (all in fact). Well, that’s true but my point is how well they have performed thus far, not how well they’re likely to perform in the future or what have you.

Callix Crabbe (39 PA), Colt Morton (18), Jim Edmonds (103), Jody Gerut (6), Justin Huber (34), Khalil Greene (144), Scott Hairston (111) and Tony Clark (31) have all failed to play at a level one would expect from the type of player theoretically readily available to be plucked from the minors or off the waiver wire at any particular time. By my count, that’s five off-season acquisitions and three starters.

Somewhat disturbingly, Morton who currently has a .129 wOBA is actually out-performing his Weighted Mean Pecota projection. The rest, I think somewhat obviously, are all under-performing. Though, in some cases, not by as much as you might expect (or hope, even).

The Crabbe, Clark, Huber and (especially) Gerut lines can be partially forgiven because of the lack of opportunity, but the fact that three of the Padres’ starting eight can’t manage a Replacement Level performance over more than 100 plate appearances is pathetic.

Nobody else in the organization can play shortstop, so short of a trade Khalil is the best we can do there. Edmonds is just an absolute black hole at nearly half a win below replacement just considering his lackluster offensive not even including his less than adequate fielding.

Hairston’s performance is very nearly exactly replacement level and were he playing center rather than left, it would be above it. However, his play in centerfield statistically speaking has actually been worse than Edmonds’. Paul McAnulty who presumably could replace and sometimes has replaced Hairston in left is actually performing above league average with the bat, but his fielding is abysmal. Also worth considering is that Hairston has some degree of potential. I personally wouldn’t mind seeing if his bat heats up with the weather.

Hopefully the Padres can find a way to get improved performances from these trouble spots and given that replacement level would be an improvement, I don’t think that’s too much to ask.

And in case anyone’s interested, here’s the most recent Sandy Alderson interview on XX Sports Radio.

Players Less Valuable Than Jim Edmonds

They’re out there. No, really.  They are in order (based on runs above replacement) David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Guillen, Travis Buck, Cody Ross, Troy Tulowitzki, Tony Pena, Adam LaRoche, Robinson Cano.  It makes me feel better.  It probably shouldn’t, but it does.  I just thought I’d share it with you on the off chance that it makes you feel better, too.

Small Sample Size, Blah, Blah

So far this season, Jim Edmonds has been lousy. Not below average, not decent, but lousy. Now, in his defense this could just be a result of rust. He didn’t get a full Spring Training because he was hurt. Or, it could even just be the result of a very small sample size. We’re talking 12 balls hit into his “zone” and 22 plate appearances here. That is to say, his numbers are practically meaningless. However, having just watched the Padres drop a series to the freaking San Francisco Giants, I’m willing to overlook the pointless nature of this exercise for the time being.

In Edmonds’ aforementioned 22 plate appearances he has hit six singles and been hit with one pitch. How bad is that? Only Khalil Greene has been worse. Sure, Edmonds probably won’t continue to hit .286/.318/.286 for the rest of the season, but that’s what he has done so far and that’s what we’re looking at today. Now, why isn’t this post ripping apart Khalil Greene instead? Well, Khalil Greene is an above average fielding short stop who as recently as last season slugged 27 home runs, so he gets a bit of a pass. Edmonds, on the other hand has not fielded his position well this season, nor does he have a particularly recent track record of success.

Edmonds has fielded only 10 of 12 balls hit into his “zone,” which is good for an RZR of .833. For comparison’s sake, no qualifying center fielder last year had an RZR below .846 and that was a converted infielder playing the position for the first time. And it isn’t like the numbers are telling us something different than we’ve see with our own eyes. Edmonds has gotten poor jumps, looked painfully slow and misplayed several balls. He has turned balls that should have been at most singles into extra bases. These same balls could have been caught were Edmonds either not so slow or had he gotten a good jump.

Now, clearly this is almost entirely unfair. It’s a small sample size. Edmonds is coming off an injury. He was a great player both offensively and defensively. That said, he’s looked bad and coming off two losses to the worst team in the division I’m not given to optimism at the moment. Here’s hoping Jimmy proves that I’m way out of line thinking he’s done.

EDIT: For the sake of looking like I’m trying to be serious in this analysis, I have to point out that PECOTA does have Edmonds with a 45% Collapse Rating and a 44% Attrition rating, so the idea that he’s ready to be flat out done isn’t based entirely on this small sample.  Also, Edmonds’ RZR last season wasn’t much better than what he’s put up so far this season coming in at only .852.  His hitting wasn’t much better.  He had a below average on-base percentage and a slugging percentage barely over .400.